In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. A 40 chance of rain means every point in the forecast area has an 40 chance of observing measurable precipitation (at least 0.01) during the 12 hour. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. 24/7 Streaming News Discover Black Heritage Emmett Till Documentary Chicago Today The Food Guy NBC Sports Chicago. They were asked what a '30% chance of rain tomorrow' means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. What Does ’40 Chance of Rain’ Mean NBC Chicago. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts-Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. In Tacoma and Olympia, there is a slight chance of rain and snow Tuesday night as temperature hit the low 30s.

It is expressed as the depth of water that collects on a flat surface, and is routinely measured with an accuracy up to 0.1 mm or 0.01 in. Rain is predicted for Tuesday with temperatures in the higher 40s in the Puget Sound. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like 'It might rain tomorrow.' Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Rainfall is typically measured using a rain gauge. The weather forecast says that there is a '30% chance of rain,' and we think we understand what it means.

Chance of rain